October Jobs Report: A Market Holding On or Starting to Slip?
October’s job growth took a breather, adding only 12,000 jobs—way below the expected 100,000 and a sharp drop from September’s 223,000. Key sectors like healthcare (+52,000) and government (+40,000) showed strength, but manufacturing struggled with a 46,000-job loss, mainly from strikes like Boeing’s. Despite the slower job growth, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, and wages inched up 0.4% month-over-month. Temporary disruptions, including hurricanes and strikes, played a role in the low numbers. With inflation cooling, the Fed is likely to cut rates to support the economy. It’s a sign of a market finding its balance, rather than a full stop.
Published in
2024 Labor Market •
Nov 13, 2024 • 2 mins read
October's jobs data tells a story: the labor market is hanging in there, but the days of runaway growth may be in the rearview mirror. Here’s the scoop on what went down and why it matters.
Jobs Added: A Slim +12,000
After a bustling September with 223,000 new jobs, October added a slim 12,000. Economists expected 100,000, so the difference is, well… noticeable. What’s behind the lag? A mix of storms, strikes, and plain-old cooling.
Sector Highlights:
- Healthcare kept things moving with a 52,000-job boost—good news for an industry with high demand.
- Government wasn’t shy either, adding 40,000 positions.
- Manufacturing, however, had a tougher month, shedding 46,000 jobs largely due to strikes, like Boeing’s, which kept 33,000 workers out of commission.
Unemployment Rate: Still at 4.1%
No major shakeups here! The unemployment rate is steady, which hints that the job market is holding its ground, even if the growth pace is sluggish.
Wage Growth: Up but Not Exactly Sprinting
Hourly earnings ticked up 0.4% for October, which translates to about 4% compared to last year. That’s decent, but for anyone feeling the pinch at the grocery store, it’s not exactly breaking records.
What’s Really Driving This?
- Hurricanes Helene and Milton: These storms brought big trouble to the Southeast, likely taking a bite out of payrolls, especially in hard-hit areas.
- Strikes Everywhere: Boeing’s strike alone shaved off 41,000 jobs temporarily. Strikes in transportation and manufacturing added to the dip.
What’s the Fed Thinking?
With the job market slowing down and inflation data softening, the Fed is expected to nudge rates down by 0.25% in November and December. They’re cautiously optimistic this will keep the economy on a smoother track into 2024.
The Bottom Line:
The job market hasn’t hit the brakes entirely, but it’s definitely not flying down the freeway anymore. We’re seeing a shift to a steady cruise mode, which could mean a softer landing for the economy—and more stability (fingers crossed) for everyone.
Sources:
- JPMorgan: October 2024 Economic Outlook
- Financial Times: U.S. Jobs Report, October 2024
- Bloomberg: October Jobs Data, Bloomberg Analysis
- U.S. Department of Labor: DOL October Jobs Release
- www.businessdraft.com
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