Business Draft Franchise Job Market Report — September 2025

“Hiring’s not hard. It’s just different now.”

The short version

If you’re feeling like hiring slowed down in September… you’re right. But not for the reasons you might think.

The job market didn’t crash, it just exhaled. Employers are still hiring. Candidates are still out there. They’re just moving slower, thinking twice, and choosing smarter.

Franchises that respond faster, write clearer job ads, and actually follow up on candidates (hint: you can automate that in Business Draft 😉) are the ones still winning.

The big picture: What the data says

Let’s start with the usual suspects:

• The official September jobs report got delayed because of the federal shutdown (yes, even the government ghosts sometimes).
• NFIB small business optimism fell to 98.8, with “uncertainty” jumping to its highest level in months. Translation: owners are still hiring, just more cautiously.
• Job openings held steady at 7.2 million. Quits — meaning people who voluntarily leave their jobs — stayed flat at about 3.1 million, which is the lowest churn rate we’ve seen in almost three years.
• The industries that matter most to franchises — restaurants, home care, fitness, and personal services — are still adding jobs, but slower.

So, fewer people are leaving jobs. That means you can’t count on constant turnover to keep your pipeline full. The candidates you want are more stable… which also means they’re pickier.

What Indeed is showing us (and why it matters more than you think)

Indeed’s Hiring Lab dropped new data this month, and it lines up perfectly with what we’re seeing inside Business Draft:

• Job postings on Indeed are 4% higher than pre-pandemic, but about 7% lower than last year.
• → That means demand is still strong — just cooling off.
• Entry-level and hourly roles (the bread and butter for most franchises) are the most affected — down ~7% year-over-year.
• → Translation: companies are hiring fewer crew members, associates, and front-line workers.
• Higher-skill and leadership roles (like managers and certified techs) are holding steady or even ticking up.
• → Translation: keep building from within. Promote your rockstars.
• Low-wage, in-person roles are where hiring is still competitive.
• → If your business requires people to show up — restaurant, care, fitness — you’re still fighting for talent.
• Many postings still don’t mention training or career growth.
• → The ones that do (hint: yours should) get way more attention.

The takeaway: The labor market’s not broken — it’s just in a “prove it” phase. Candidates want to know your opportunity is real, stable, and worth their time.

What this means for you as a franchise owner

Here’s the part that matters — what you can actually do with this info:

1. Don’t assume people will come to you.

The walk-ins and job fair days aren’t cutting it. Post everywhere (Indeed Apply, your website, your BD career site), and make sure your listings are clean, short, and show what makes working for you different.

2. Respond fast.

If someone applies, they’re probably applying to three other places at the same time. You don’t have days anymore — you have hours. That first call or message decides if they ghost or show.

3. Be transparent.

Candidates want stability. That means showing clear pay ranges, schedules, and training. If you have advancement opportunities, mention them early — not after the second interview.

4. Keep your own data close.

Your own Business Draft dashboard is now more valuable than any report. Look at your time-to-hire, drop-off rate, and no-shows. The national averages are slowing, but your local market may be completely different.

5. Internal growth beats external churn.

If you can move a front-line team member into a manager-in-training slot, you just solved two problems — filled a higher-level role and retained loyalty.

A quick reality check

Even though hiring is slowing down, the quality of applicants is going up. The ones applying now tend to be more serious and less “I’ll take whatever I can get.” That’s a good thing — but it also means your process has to match their intent.

This is where automation helps. Following up, scheduling, and messaging should be instant. Business Draft users who automate those steps are seeing up to 60% fewer no-shows and 40% faster hiring times.

What’s next

When the delayed government report finally drops, we’ll have hard numbers for September — but we already know the story:

• Hiring is steady, not shrinking.
• Job seekers are still active — just more selective.
• Franchises that communicate quickly and clearly are thriving while everyone else waits.

So keep your foot on the gas, tighten your follow-ups, and let your postings tell a real story.

One last line we like to leave you with:

“Good enough” hiring isn’t good enough anymore.

Stay sharp, stay kind, and keep building the teams that make your brand special.

Ty Peck